FTMO Challenge Toolkit

Risk Probability Calculator

Switch between Calculator and Challenge Mode to estimate breach risk, pass/fail odds, and time-to-pass.

Quick Risk

  1. Step 1

    Strategy

  2. Step 2

    Rules

  3. Step 3

    Goal

  4. Step 4

    Results

Strategy

Define your edge in R units. R means your planned risk per trade.

Percentage of trades expected to close as winners over your sample.

Example: 1.5R means average winner is 1.5x your risk.

Example: 1.0R means average loss equals planned risk.

Policy guardrail: optimization recommendations are capped at 1.00%.

Used to model daily reset logic and convert trades-to-pass into trading days.

Strategy Health

Expectancy: 0.100R

Geometric growth/trade: 0.094%

Positive expectancy: your edge is favorable over many trades.